The attention-liquidity cycle of memecoins
October 9th, 2025
Note: I can only speak in detail from my own experience trading memes (I began in November of '24, though have been in crypto on and off since late '21) but, in intending to write this post, I dove a little into the history / context of the space prior (so perhaps some OGs can correct me if I'm wrong). Nevertheless, throughout my time here, it's been fascinating to observe an ongoing and analogous trend, one that I can only see forming clearer and clearer with each passing day.
This trend is not exclusive to memecoins (e.g. the dot-com to Web 2.0 internet cycle), but rather reflective of human nature itself, and it drives every open market, think stocks, tech, crypto, etc.
Memecoins, however, are unique, in that they strip this trend down to its purest form: raw human behaviour unfolding in a permissionless market, which reflects collective emotion in real time.
Think about it. It's inevitable. When there's money to be made fast, greed floods in, and when that greed burns people, fear and fatigue take over. Then time passes, people forget, and it all resets.
Yet most are so caught up in the day-to-day discourse, 'runner of the day' or latest rotation / meta, that they forget to ever zoom out and observe the bigger picture, and it is in this moment now more than ever, that I find it most poignant to draw attention to this trend.
I think that those who can recognise and frontrun this trajectory of this trend will likely emerge as the winners as we approach the end of this cycle, so allow me to explain:
I will call this trend 'the attention-liquidity cycle of memes', but it is analogous in many places. It proceeds as follows:
(1) Curiosity → (2) Belief → (3) Greed → (4) Exhaustion → (5) Reflection → (6) Conviction → (7) Boredom → (8) Curiosity again.
So let's dive into this in context so far:
1) Curiosity → Memecoins in early to mid '23 (after the FTX collapse and 2022 bear market fatigue, retail was gone, but the few that were still here were curious), we saw memecoins like $BONK and $PEPE. This was the early stage of rediscovery: people thought "Wait... memes can still move", and it felt fun, low-stakes, playful, and organic. Just some traders experimenting after max pain.
2) Belief stage → Memecoins in late '23 and '24. This curiosity morphed itself into multiple billion-dollar runners as narratives began to solidify and the market started proving the thesis right in real time. Think $BONK, $POPCAT, $WIF. People began to understand that memecoins were what pulled new participants in, gave communities something to rally behind, and what made the space fun again. This stage was the turning point in which memes transcended jokes and started to feel like real movements.
3) Greed → Memecoins from Nov '24 - Jan '25 (peak meme euphoria, dozens of coins running to exceptional levels: think tens of millions, hundreds of millions, even billions, seemingly runners every minute, you couldn't look away, trenches on fire, million dollar PnLs, top trenchers making $500k a day, excitement everywhere).
4) Exhaustion (current stage) → Which we are currently in the late stage of IMO. Naturally, this high couldn't last, late Jan '25 - Oct '25. It started with the celebrity liquidity extraction and rugs ($TRUMP, $MELANIA, $LIBRA etc.), then tools hyperprofessionalising the game and adding to the cancer. Bundling / multi-deploy bots made freely available (e.g. Uxento), now hyper-rotations / shortening metas each week fragmenting liquidity further (ICM, CCM, perps DEXs, BNB China mania etc. as of lately) as CT continues to PvP one another for scraps.
5) Reflection (emerging now) → Heading into Q4 and the peak of the cycle, there's a growing awareness that the casino dynamic has burned everybody out and can no longer continue this way. More and more people are calling for a return to communities and belief. There's a re-centering around memes with identity, narrative, and staying power. Sustainable coins that represent culture and not just trade volume, coins that make members feel part of a real community, and members here will proactively create content and products surrounding the narrative (because they're excited and genuinely want to take part) and form a whole ecosystem surrounding the meme.
My predictions from here on out:
Note that I think we are currently heavily amidst the exhaustion / heading into reflection stage:
1) People are already fed up with new pairs (fully in progress). It is undoubtedly a cancer to trade.
2) We're entering the shift toward long-term holding and tighter communities (just beginning).
3) Established memes with culture and identity will start outperforming.
4) Sentiment gradually improves as belief and patience return.
5) Capital consolidates into a smaller set of cultural memes, stage 6, the conviction stage: tokens like $TROLL (IMO the current best asymmetric bet) that represent something and that people can rally behind, not just short-term trades. This is where Murad's thesis begins to shine!
6) We see the return of large-scale runs, hundreds of millions and billions (even decabillions for $TROLL in full-blown alt season mania) for the top narratives and strongest communities that stayed grinding despite poor market conditions, much like last year's November mania, but even better for the believers. Recall that Bitcoin dominance is still high at 59%, and in alt season should drop down to ~40% (36% in 2017 and 39% in 2021), which corresponds to an added $1.7 trillion flowing into alts (assuming that BTC drops from ~$150k to ~$125k as alt dominance grows). Alon's airdrop will only fuel this further. Pumpfolio mania. Those who believed and held get rich!
7) Retail is flocking in all while this is happening, excited by stories of community-driven success. Naturally, they ape into memecoins, after all, it's the only thing they understand. They look for coins that immediately make sense ($TROLL). Our coins pump higher.
8) Euphoria and overconfidence eventually return, peak cycle and blow off top, 2026/27 bear market, exacerbated by whatever unexpected catalyst the world throws next (there's always something).
9) Time passes, people forget about the past, memory fades, they get bored, that boredom turns into curiosity, that curiosity into risk-taking, the cycle resets.
And just like that, the cycle begins again!
Final thoughts:
If you've made it to the end of this, I'd love to know what you think. How do you see this playing out?
Note that these are just my personal thoughts / opinions. However, I find this to be a good exercise to encourage critical thinking, in an age of anti-intellectualism that lacks it more than ever. My predictions have fared very well so far!